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US Elections, 3 Nov 2020
Different Views:
Conserv. view: Much fraud, due to mail-in ballot, if the closest states went the other way => DJT won. (Ref: Gl, Navarro).
(73% Rep voters believe ‘widespread fraud in 2020 election’).
Dem.response: No serious fraud, claims are incorrect.(Ref: NYT,CNN)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/election-us-2020-54808474
https://rightwirereport.com/2020/12/04/summary-portal-of-alleged-election-fraud-in-2020/
System & Official Results:
50 states, plus Fed District Washingtn DC (not in a State), allocated electoral college members.
538 ECVots in total (100 senators, 435 representativs, +3 WDC votes)
Therefore 270 (>half) ECVotes to win Pres. Electoral College vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress
2020 closest states (Elect.Coll.Vote) (Rep./Dem.%) (Margin/Totl votes)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2020/results
https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2020presgeresults.pdf https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020
Arizona(11) 49.1 / 49.4. (10,457 /3.39m) (0.3%)
Georgia(16) 49.2 / 49.2, (11,779 /5.00m) (0.2%)
Wisconsin(10) 48.8 / 49.5(10), (20,738 /3.28m) (0.6%)
Nevada(6) 48 / 50, (33,596 /1.39m) (2.4%)
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Pennsylvnia(20) 48.8 / 50.0,(81,660 /6.92m) (1.3%)
Michigan(16) 47.8 / 50.6, (154,188 /5.51m) (2.8%)
NorthCarolina(15) 49.9 / 48.6 (74,481 /5.49m) (1.4%)
[Florida(29) 51.2 / 47.9 (371,686 /11.04m)]
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Elect.Coll Votes excluding 5 closest states: Biden:243, Trump:232.
Elect.Coll Votes if Trump takes 4 closest states (<34,000 margin): Biden:263, Trump:275.
Elect.Coll Votes if Trump takes 5 closest states (incl. PA):
Biden:243, Trump:295.
Conclusion: Official results were very close - tiny margins key states
Background:
2020 early voting (early poll station + mail-in) was over 100/158m.
Mail-in voting 66m in 2020, compared to 33m 2016, <30m 2012
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/
Mail-in ballot demographics: Dem 58% : Rep 32% https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/11/20/the-voting-experience-in-2020/
1,100+ Previous elections fraud convictions samples from Heritage Foundation https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud/#choose-a-state
100 legal cases (66 concluded, 7 wins for DJT) relating to 2020 elections. Dismissals almost entirely on standing/time, not merits
https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_2020_Election_Help_Desk:_Post-election_lawsuits,_2020
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The Fraud Challenge:
Navarro Report summarisg multiple irregularty claims (Sumry Tble):